The presidential system debate has once again occupied Turkey’s agenda, as could be expected. This time, the issue was raised by Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the Nationalist Action Party, who declared that his party may support a constitutional amendment bill in the parliament in order to let the people settle this debate through a referendum. Now a constitutional amendment package that includes provisions for a presidential model is likely to appear before the Turkish parliament.

Predicting a likely referendum on this issue, Metropoll has been monitoring people’s opinion on the presidential debate for a long time. The data we have gathered over this period show the trends in public opinion and explains why the government now is ready to go for a referendum to settle the matter for good. This issue of Turkey’s Pulse examines how likely people think it is that there will be a constitutional referendum in 2017, whether they would vote for a presidential system, and how their support changes depending on President Erdogan’s decision to stand as a candidate.

On the other hand, Turkish foreign policy has recently been occupied by the issues of Syria and Iraq/Mosul. While Turkey’s operation continues in Syria, the government is also eager to take part in the Mosul offensive to re-take the city from ISIS along with Iraqi government forces, the Peshmerga, and US troops. Do the people share the government’s view that Turkey must have a say in the future of Mosul? Are they supportive of the Mosul operation with or without Turkey? Do people want to see Turkish troops in Mosul, and why? As this issue of Turkey’s Pulse explores answers to these questions, it also keeps up its monitoring of the Syrian situation, whether support for Operation Euphrates Shield continues, and on what conditions this support is likely to remain.

In addition to these two main topics Turkey’s Pulse also analyzes the current level of support for political parties, the fight against FETO, and emergency rule.

The October Turkey's Pulse survey was carried out using stratified sampling and weighting methods on 2,039 people in 28 provinces based on the 26 regions of Turkey's NUTS 2 system between October 14 and October 18. The survey used face-to-face questioning with a margin of error of 2.17 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence.